Great post! I saw it when you answered Brandon Beylo on his tin twitter thread. I appreciate the dispassionate analysis. Too many accounts on uranium twitter are basically just cheerleaders (eg quakes99).
> Remember mining businesses fundamentally are not good businesses
As an investor in coal miners I definitely agree! There’s always something going wrong -- methane explosions, tight labor markets, port issues, railroad issues, sandstone, etc.
I knew when I got into this investment, I would likely leave a lot on the table. That's okay and I frankly probably still have too much remaining exposure. I do think the twitter-sphere is largely correct to be honest, but there is just a lot more downside if I am wrong today.
and less upside if what the twitter consensus thinks actually occurs. To be fair, no one cares about uranium stocks in the broader investment universe at this point.
Congrats on getting in early. The way I’ve heard your argument framed is that the easy money has been made already (by investing in U in 2020). From a risk/reward or opportunity cost perspective, the easy money is different than the big money (meaning flows, not necessarily returns). Would love to hear you extend this thesis into what you think has a better risk/return for your uranium capital going forward and/or what your hurdle rate theses are. Obviously, uranium no longer meets this standard for you. Really enjoyed your post.
I wouldn't say it was easy money as it requires a lot of work/research to understand and get comfortable with an opaque market. You also have the nuclear risk at all times.
As for your second question it really depends on time horizon right. If you believe the physical uranium can still double, you should probably own the miners at these prices. I invest for the long-term in general, so to me if I believe there will be a "squeeze" type event it makes sense to be in the miners today.
Really appreciate the likes and sharing as I continue to very slowly grow this platform. No plans to ever monetize other than through donations but love to engage and get feedback
Great post! I saw it when you answered Brandon Beylo on his tin twitter thread. I appreciate the dispassionate analysis. Too many accounts on uranium twitter are basically just cheerleaders (eg quakes99).
> Remember mining businesses fundamentally are not good businesses
As an investor in coal miners I definitely agree! There’s always something going wrong -- methane explosions, tight labor markets, port issues, railroad issues, sandstone, etc.
I knew when I got into this investment, I would likely leave a lot on the table. That's okay and I frankly probably still have too much remaining exposure. I do think the twitter-sphere is largely correct to be honest, but there is just a lot more downside if I am wrong today.
and less upside if what the twitter consensus thinks actually occurs. To be fair, no one cares about uranium stocks in the broader investment universe at this point.
Congrats on getting in early. The way I’ve heard your argument framed is that the easy money has been made already (by investing in U in 2020). From a risk/reward or opportunity cost perspective, the easy money is different than the big money (meaning flows, not necessarily returns). Would love to hear you extend this thesis into what you think has a better risk/return for your uranium capital going forward and/or what your hurdle rate theses are. Obviously, uranium no longer meets this standard for you. Really enjoyed your post.
I wouldn't say it was easy money as it requires a lot of work/research to understand and get comfortable with an opaque market. You also have the nuclear risk at all times.
As for your second question it really depends on time horizon right. If you believe the physical uranium can still double, you should probably own the miners at these prices. I invest for the long-term in general, so to me if I believe there will be a "squeeze" type event it makes sense to be in the miners today.
Obviously, none of this is investment advice.
Much appreciated. Really looking forward to your posts in 2024! Happy New Year!
Really appreciate the likes and sharing as I continue to very slowly grow this platform. No plans to ever monetize other than through donations but love to engage and get feedback
Thank you!
Great thesis and discipline/execution on it